Whether Russian fuel can really ease the global diesel squeeze is now the central question after a phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Friday. Energy analyst Joseph Webster of the Atlantic Council is sceptical: the promised cargoes, he argued, are uncertain and “small in volume”.
The figures came from Trump himself. On Truth Social he wrote that Moscow would ship 300,000 tons right away, another 500,000 during November and a million tons after that, eventually reaching three million tons in total. To make those cargoes legal, the Treasury’s sanctions office OFAC issued a temporary general license, in effect a waiver on part of the restrictions meant to starve the Kremlin’s war budget.
Moscow sounded pleased. According to the Kremlin readout, Putin offered oil and fuel products to American and world buyers and predicted a positive effect on the global economy. Yet he also poured cold water on any quick return to three-way negotiations, pointing to Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow.
Kyiv reacted with fury. Volodymyr Zelensky described it as money for a war that should be stopped rather than stretched out, and he proposed a mutual pause instead: no Ukrainian hits on Russian refineries if Russia spares Ukraine’s power grid. Several US lawmakers also criticised the move.
The timing was awkward for Washington’s own diplomacy. In Miami, Trump’s negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff spent roughly six hours with Ukrainian, European and NATO delegations on Friday. According to a source briefed on the meeting, the agenda ranged from security guarantees and an economic plan for the post-war period to Ukraine’s road into the EU and, without further detail, territorial questions. The aim is a joint offer that could be put to Moscow before winter sets in.
Context matters too. Ukrainian drones knocked out as much as 60 percent of Russia’s refining at times this summer, while the war involving Iran has taken millions of barrels per day of refinery output off the market.
