Stung by heavy Republican losses in last week’s midterms, President Donald Trump has returned to a familiar playbook: pairing immigration with trade threats. In an all-caps post on Truth Social on Thursday, he demanded that Mexico halt migrants moving toward the US border or see tariffs on its goods “IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED.” He blamed the new movement on the election result, while stressing that he himself had not been on the ballot.
The trigger is a group of roughly 1,500 people, most of them Central Americans and many travelling with young children, who set out on Tuesday from Tapachula, a city close to Guatemala. Some told reporters they hope a Democratic-controlled Congress, which takes over in January, might create legal routes to work in the United States. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said the caravan would not be allowed in, adding: “Full stop.”
Across the border, President Claudia Sheinbaum played down the alarm. At her daily briefing she said that “not a single migrant caravan” had reached Mexico’s north since Trump returned to office in January 2025. Two groups are currently moving through the south of the country, she said. One has shrunk from about 600 people to around 100 after officials intervened, and the other is made up of Hondurans. Mexican authorities are offering humanitarian help, explaining how hard it is to get into the US and encouraging people to go home. Force, she stressed, is not on the table.
The threat lands at a delicate moment for trade. The two neighbours are already haggling over a new trade framework, because the White House let the continental USMCA pact lapse without renewal this summer. Just two weeks ago the State Department also imposed visa restrictions on more than 15 people it accuses of organising caravans through Central America and Mexico.
