Less than a year after walking out of Yemen in anger, the United Arab Emirates is preparing to step back in. According to sources in Yemen cited by the Guardian, Abu Dhabi has agreed to restart payments to some of the southern government units fighting the Houthis, while Saudi Arabia will fly air cover for them. Neither government has commented publicly.
The two Gulf monarchies fell out bitterly at the turn of the year. Saudi jets struck Emirati weapons deliveries meant for the separatist Southern Transitional Council after it tried to seize control of the south; its leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, fled to Abu Dhabi, and the Emiratis pulled out entirely.
What is pushing them back together is fear. Since September the Iran-aligned Houthis have advanced down the Red Sea coast and taken ground around the Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint for close to a tenth of world trade, at a moment when the Strait of Hormuz is already blocked. Hardly a day passes without Houthi drones or rockets flying toward Saudi territory, and the kingdom has seen flights grounded and oil installations knocked out more than once. Analysts at the Soufan Center say Abu Dhabi also expects an emboldened Houthi movement to turn its weapons on the Emirates again. The forces it once trained, among them the Giants Brigades, rank among the most capable anti-Houthi fighters.
On the ground, a government counteroffensive launched in early October with heavy Saudi air support has made only limited headway. On Friday two Houthi missiles hit Aden’s airport, landing some 500 metres from a Yemenia airliner getting ready for take-off; nobody was hurt, according to information minister Moammar al-Eryani.
The circle of involved states keeps widening. Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has asked parliament for authority to use the army in Saudi Arabia’s defence, insisting any role would be purely defensive, and Britain has dispatched an RAF refuelling tanker. UN figures put the number of Yemenis forced from their homes since August above 200,000. Big questions remain open, not least the southern separatists’ demand for a referendum on independence, which neither Riyadh nor Abu Dhabi has answered.
