Bulgarians went to the polls on Sunday for the second time in a week, and when voting closed the pollsters were in rare agreement. Every exit survey released at 8pm local time had the sitting head of state, Iliana Yotova, ahead of her challenger, Andrey Gyurov. Official figures were still to come, but a confirmed win would make her the first woman ever chosen by Bulgarian voters for the presidency.

Alpha Research put the Yotova ticket, with running mate Kiril Valchev, on 52.5%, while Myara gave her 51%. His rival, a former caretaker head of government supported by liberal parties that look firmly westward, trailed on figures ranging from 43.4% up to 44.7%. Around 4% picked the ballot option of supporting neither candidate.

Enthusiasm was thin. Turnout estimates hovered between roughly 27% and 29%, and in the first round on 25 October fewer than one in four of the 6.6 million registered voters took part. That earlier contest featured 27 tickets; Yotova finished first with almost 35%, Gyurov second with almost 32%. Bulgarians abroad could cast ballots in 60 countries, with the last stations on America’s west coast closing early on Monday, Sofia time.

At heart the race was about Russia. Yotova calls herself a “president of peace”, rejects weapons for Kyiv and argues that peace can only come through talks. Gyurov signed a security pact with Ukraine while in office and, in a televised debate, accused her of refusing to name Moscow as the force behind drone strikes on merchant shipping in the nearby Black Sea.

The post is mostly ceremonial, yet it carries real levers: the president names caretaker cabinets during political deadlock, commands the armed forces and can veto laws. On foreign policy she and Prime Minister Rumen Radev sing from the same sheet: stay anchored in Brussels, but argue for friendlier relations with Moscow and for scrapping the punitive measures against it.

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