For the first time since the dark days of December 2022, Europeans are paying three figures for their benchmark gas. Traders saw the Dutch TTF contract for next-month delivery push through the €100 line on Wednesday; by four in the afternoon, Central European time, it was quoted at €100.37, roughly 4% higher than the day before. That is about three times what Europe paid in February, when a megawatt-hour went for around €32 and the Iran war had not yet started.
Earlier the same day, Brussels had already sounded the alarm: EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen struck an unusually gloomy tone. Speaking after talks with oil refiners, he warned that the continent faces “another energy crisis” and predicted tough months ahead for both citizens and industry.
Supply from the Gulf is the core problem. Qatar used to be a pillar of Europe’s LNG imports, but Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke estimates it is now shipping just 20 to 30% of its capacity. That has left the bloc leaning on American cargoes for close to a third of its supply while it bids against Asian buyers for every uncontracted cargo.
Storage offers little comfort. When the last cold season finished, reserves had sunk to 28%, and topping them up since then has been sluggish and costly. The EU average now sits close to 75%, Germany is at about 60%, and the usual 90% goal for 1 November is clearly out of reach. Power markets are feeling it as well: German baseload electricity for next year rose to €159.30 per megawatt-hour, its highest since June 2023.
Households will mostly notice in 2027, because retail tariffs trail the wholesale market, although German gas deals for new customers are already about 55% dearer than in January. Makers of fertiliser, chemicals and steel have trimmed output. Prices remain far below the roughly €340 peak of August 2022, yet forecasters see no relief for twelve months or more even if the war ends and the winter turns out mild.
